The Greatest Bullpen Ever Assembled???

According to Joel Sherman, it seems as if the Yankees are sold enough on Chad Gaudin to keep Joba in the bullpen for the ALCS. Personally, I'm an advocate of this, the Yanks are 6-0 in Guadin's starts and Joba was unreliable in the rotation down the stretch.

Think about this...

Gaudin gives you five innings of 2 or 3 run ball with 100 pitches thrown (similar to what he's done with the yanks)

You can have Robertson thrown the 6th (best K rate of any pitcher in the AL). Save Marte for any situational lefties. Throw Joba in the 7th, sprinkled in with Phil Coke if necessary. Phil Hughes in the 8th, and Mo in the 9th.

For a team that has relied so much on high priced free agents, that homegrown bullpen (I'm including Marte because he was traded for prospects) looks awfully good huh?

Long time, but I said it would happen....

It's been a long long time, but I just wanted to leave my Mark Teixiera prediction up there for all to read for a while. I said it would happen...it did.

The Master Plan - An Ace and Teixeira

Remember this time last year? When the Yankees didn't want to spend money on free agents? Remember when they didn't want to give up young talent AND pay free agent money to Johan Santana? Here's why folks:

The Yankees were hoping that the Twins wouldn't be able to trade Santana, making him a free agent at the end of the season. If he got to free agency, he was clearly the #1 choice. The Yanks were able to hedge this bet because CC Sabathia was also due for free agency. If they missed out on Santana, CC was next in line. So they were spending $23 million a year on a pitcher regardless, but didn't want to part with young, cost controlled pitching.

Heading to the 2007 offseason, the Yankees had a gaping hole at first base. Don't think for one minute that they actually wanted Giambi to wear anything that said Rawlings on it. The plan was to sign Mark Teixeira, who at the time was coming into free agency with the Atlanta Braves. Instead of testing the market, Teixeira opted to sign a 1-year deal with Atlanta. With Teixeira off the market for another year the Yanks kept first base open and their checkbooks closed (save the new ARod contract).

Here's where things went horribly, horribly wrong. Cashman and company expected to get something out of Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy last season. At least enough to pencil one of them into a spot in the 2009 rotation. Unfortunately, neither was able to deliver. The Yankees were probably hoping for a rotation of Wang, pettitte (to resign), hughes, kennedy, with joba in the bullpen (potentially). Instead, they are looking at Wang, Joba, ?, ?, ?. So instead of signing one big name free agent pitcher, they need a second.

I don't think it was ever the plan to sign AJ Burnett or Derek Lowe, but to quote 'Chip Douglas': "Necessity is the mother of invention."

The 2008 offseason was always about acquiring a bonafide #1 pitcher, and Mark Teixeira -- AJ Burnett or Derek Lowe are the reaction to last season's pitching problems.

Teixeira is the ideal Yankee first baseman. Gold Glove caliber defense, high OBP, switch hitter, hits for power. Teixeira is the best young position player to hit the market since Alex Rodriguez. Please don't let anyone fool you into thinking that the Yankees will let this kid play in Anaheim or Boston for the next 8 years.
I for one won't be surprised if Mark Teixeira is there to open the "House that George Built".

Yanks to add a bat?

The pitching staff seems to have undergone a facelift, but let's face it, the (proposed) lineup has holes:

Damon LF (can he stay healthy and effective?)
Jeter SS (put together a nice second half, but a decline isn't out of the question)
Matsui DH (coming off of injury plagued seasons, also declining from age)
A-Rod 3B (it's an odd year, he wins MVP's every odd year - he'll be a monster)
Posada C (had a freak season two years ago, expect him to revert to career averages)
Nady RF (expect .280, 20 HR, 80-100 RBI if all goes well)
Cano 2B (Yanks are hopeful he can return to form and maybe be the #3 hitter)
Swisher 1B (Coming off a miserable season)
Gardner CF (Great speed, but can't hit a lick)

Not the Bronx Bombers that we all know and love. I would be VERY surprised to see the Yankees move into their new ballpark with this lineup. They created holes (letting Giambi & Abreu walk) in order to patch up the rotation. But face it, chicks dig the long ball. Here's my theory:

The Yanks will be serious about Mark Teixeira, very serious.

Reason #1 - Look at the lineup above.

Reason #2 - The Yanks have spent most of their drafting resources on power pitchers, therefore, have very little in position players in the minor leages. Eric Duncan is not the answer. Juan Miranda? Ehh, don't think so. Jesus Montero is a beast, but he's years away.

Reason #3 - No matter what they say, they can afford him. The Yanks say they want to keep payroll down. Why? I ask. They have $90 million coming off the books, and are moving into a cash flow monster of a new stadium!!!!

CC - 23 million per
AJ - 16 million per
Pettitte - 12 million per (hypothetically)
Rounding out the bench - $4 million
Total = $55 million

Add Mike Cameron's 10 million and you have $65 million in additions. That leaves $25 million dollars to spend on a bat. (Teixeira anyone).

The argument can be raised that they'll need payroll flexibility to extend Wang in the near future. Matsui and Damon are both off the books next year (another $25 million in AAV)

They can afford Teixeira, plain and simple.

Rotation version 2009?

Ok, so C.C. Sabathia is now on board and it appears that A.J. Burnett and possibly Andy Pettitte are soon to follow. This leaves a rotation of: CC, Wang, Burnett, Pettitte, and Joba. I expect Aceves to be the long man with Hughes and Kennedy starting the season in AAA.

Assuming everyone stays healthy, I expect Girardi to get creative with the rotation right around the all-star break in order to limit Joba's innings to keep him ready for the stretch run. Figure on the hottest of the Aceves/Hughes/Kennedy trio finding their way into the rotation somehow.

An interesting thought on top of it, thinking way ahead here. Assume the Yanks get to the postseason with all five/six of their starters healthy, what does the playoff rotation look like? They may only need 3 starters for the opening round and then 4 for the ALCS and/or WS. Do you keep Andy Pettitte off the post season roster? Or, do you move Joba back to the bullpen and go with a rotation of CC, Wang, Burnett, and Pettitte? I know it's a reach, but it's thought provoking none the less.

The Science of the CC Free Agency

The key to any negotiation is to have leverage. Enter CC Sabathia.

Over the past few days, the Yankees' bid for CC is being greeted with skepticism and panic. "Where is CC?" "Why hasn't he signed yet?" "He wants to hit and play in California?" "Money isnt important to him." "He hates New York."
Sheep, all of us, sheep.

Let's look at this whole thing in terms of leverage and rationality.

The Yankees have been telegraphing this move since last year when they wouldn't trade for Johan Santana. It was well known then that they would need to sign Sabathia. Forget the kids, even if Hughes and IPK dazzled last year, the Yanks were still going to go after Sabathia, and hard.

The Yanks clearly had zero leverage. Sabathia knows this. During the season, Cleveland knew this. After failed attempts to sign him to an extension, the Indians traded CC to Milwaukee for whatever return they could get; knowing they would not get a hometown discount versus the Yankees. Milwaukee made the deal for the short-term, they were not expecting to outbid the Yankees or retain CC's services. Instead, they were looking to make the playoffs for the first time in ages and hopefully bring life to a near dead franchise.

Milwaukee threw an offer of 5 yrs./$100M in good faith to show that they would like to have CC back, but that they knew it wouldn't be enough to outbid the Yankees. The Yankees have already shown their hand, and are expected to make a bid early in the offseason. On the first day, they make a 6 yr/ $140M offer, big enough (they hope) to scare the other teams away. The reasoning is simple, if nobody else bids on CC, he has no leverage and will come to NY on their first offer.

CC and his agent knows this. So the most obvious step in this 'business equation' , is to figure out how to regain leverage to receive a maximum return. The way to do this is to remain quiet, and wait for other offers to come in. Make the Yankees think that while their offer may be the highest, there are other factors involved. Make them wait, make them sweat, make them doubt their offer, make the media go crazy, make New Yorkers think there will be no Christmas without CC. Make the Yankees bid against themselves.

The rest of baseball knows this as well. Does anyone else find it odd that no team has made an offer to Sabathia since the Yankees? This is the #1 free agent on the market with a huge offer already in front of him, and while teams are interested, none of them have made an offer. Obviously they know something that we don't, that the longer they make the Yankees wait for CC, the less competition they will get from the Yankees on other free agents. In addition, there are a number of other free agent pitchers available, they cannot afford to let the Yankees set the market on pitching. If they do, the Yankees can pick and choose whoever they'd like.

While money has never been an object in New York, $140 million dollars is a lot and whether or not CC signs with the Yankees will have a huge impact on how they progress in this free agent period. The plan in New York is simple, sign CC and go from there.

On a side note, for those who are convinced that CC will sign with the Dodgers or Giants on a hometown discount, remember this: he didn't sign an extension with Cleveland on a hometown discount, and he didn't respond to the Brewers' offer either. This is a 28 year old pitcher with the world in the palm of his hands. This may be the last contract he ever signs, he needs to think about the rest of his life, the rest of his children's lives, there is no doubt that the lure of the new stadium and the megamillion dollar endorsement contracts in New York can help him settle in California six years later than he would have liked. In 2008, in this economy, you don't leave $40M on the table, and you certainly don't sign for $140M if you think you can hold out for $150M.

CC will be a Yankee. This isn't because I'm a Yankee fan who believes that every player wants to be a Yankee. He will be a Yankee for the same reason that other prime aged free agents have signed with the Yankees. Money, Money, and more Money.

Why no blogging?

Just in case anyone has checked this and wondered why I haven't been writing a damn thing about the Yankees - the answer should be quite simple. They have been terrible. Watching them makes me so sick I can barely stand to read anyone else's blog let alone write my own.

I am going to try to get this thing going again - I am looking forward to reviewing the season so far and grading the roster. Also, I plan to look at the players on the farm who we may be seeing as soon as September...Stay tuned and thanks for the patience...

Trivia for you Don Swan - Who was the last Yankee to hit for the cycle? What year did he do it? What team was it against? What event in this player's career was a significant moment for Yankee history?

(Hint: This is Michael Kay's favorite trivia questions, you'll see it on YES twice a month)