Tuesday, December 18, 2007

The Pitching Staff - Part II - The Rotation



First off, my apologies to Jonathan Albaladejo - who I left off the bullpen probables. (My brother, however, was happy with my omission as he thinks this kid will be the next Brian Boehringer - ouch.) Either way, the Yanks picked him up from the Nationals for Tyler Clippard. While I've never seen him pitch, Albaladejo is a power arm that throws strikes (they all do that until they come to NY).

The Yankees rotation is usually a hot topic in December as we usually toast the arrival of a new savior each year. The names are seemingly endless: Jeff Weaver, Hideki Irabu (haha), Kevin Brown, Javy Vazquez, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, Randy Johnson, etc. -- the high expectations usually flatten out like a Kei Igawa fastball and the Yanks are generally looking for more pitching by the trade deadline. Since he has taken over organizational control, Brian Cashman has been working diligently to revamp the farm system and develop in-house options to bolster the staff.

Despite the enormous speculation and hot stove activity, the Yankees have not landed the "true ace" that many believe they need.

Chien-Ming Wang's struggles this postseason have cast doubts as to whether he is a #1 starter. Wang's sinker is the best in the game (sorry Brandon Webb). He shows outstanding poise in pressure situations, and rarely gets flustered. When he is on, his velocity is anywhere from 94-96 mph with insane movement -- hitting his sinker on these nights is like trying to drive a bowling ball with a 7-iron (meaning that you're shit out of luck). He has won more games over the last two years (38) than anyone in baseball. Wang throws strikes, works deep into games, and always gives his team a chance to win. Isn't that what an ace is supposed to do??

Wang's strengths, ironically, are also his weaknesses. He relies almost exclusively on his sinker; and while it's a very good pitch, a big league hitter can hit anything when he knows it's coming. Wang also pitches to contact, and despite the effectiveness of his sinker, anything can happen when the ball is put in play. For Wang to be a true #1 "shut-down" Josh Beckett-like starter, many believe he will have to develop his secondary pitches and strike more batters out. Reports indicate that he is refining his slider (once his best pitch) and change in order to rely less heavily on his sinker.

I think this is the year that Wang wins 20 games if he can stay healthy. He missed nearly a month last season and still won 19.

Andy Pettitte, along with Mike Mussina, is the veteran leader on the staff. Pettitte had a good year with Bombers after his return from the Houston Astros. He had some hard luck losses early in the year, but finished strong and pitched well in the post season. Andy's stuff is still there and we all know that he has "balls as big as grapefruits." I'm not at all worried about the HGH debacle, as Andy seems to have put the issue behind him.

Moose is a question mark for me. His arm strength was clearly down last year. Were his struggles last year an indicator that his age has caught up to him? or is it a result of the hamstring injury he suffered early in the year as a result of Marty Mitchell's "training program?" Personally, I think it's a little of both. Moose is clearly a back of the rotation guy, especially in the AL East, who is capable of winning 12 or 13 games. He can still baffle a line up with finesse when he's on, but the lack of velocity will certainly hurt his consistency.

Now comes the fun part. The kids (who I will blog about more later) -- Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Ian Kennedy are considered the future of the Yankees. The three righthanders are the crown jewels of the Yankees' system and all three look to be big contributors to the '08 rotation. How will Joe Girardi handle the innings limitations on the three youngsters? Can Joba become the shut down starter the Yanks need? Which Phil Hughes will we see? The Phil Hughes who absolutely dominated the Rangers in his near no-hitter? or the Phil Hughes who fell victim to high pitch counts and hittable two strike pitches? Will Ian Kennedy be as good as he was in September? or will he lose out on a rotation spot to the aging Mike Mussina?

The rotation depends heavily on these youngsters, and how it will turn out is anyone's guess. The questions are there every year for the Yanks: "How long before Jaret Wright's arm falls off?" "How is "Big Bird's" back? " "Who is Carl Pavano?" "How do you pronounce Irabu?" "Where does Jeff Weaver score his weed? " "Did Jose Contreras really take a raft here?" "Why is Kei Igawa wearing sunglasses?" This year, however, the questions will be asked about home-grown 21-year old phenoms who are hungry to make their mark and create a new dynasty. I'll take those questions any day.


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