Prior Warning

I have to admit that when Mark Prior was non-tendered by the Cubs and became a free agent, I was all over it. I figured this would be a great opportunity for the Yanks to steal a potentially dominating pitcher. After having thought about Prior over the last week, I've changed my mind.

When Prior is healthy (see 2002, 2003, & 2005), the guy is downright filthy (10.5 Ks per 9). Unfortunately, over the past two years, he has only thrown 30 more innings than our favorite son, Carl Pavano. The Cubs did not tender Prior due to uncertainties regarding his health and their unwillingness to give him a multi-year deal.

There are said to be a dozen teams interested in the right hander who is recovering from shoulder surgery and is expected to pitch some time in May. Prior is reportedly looking prove he is healthy and sign a one-year deal, only to try to cash in as a free agent next year.

Signing Prior would be a bad move for the Yanks (think back to the Octavio Dotel signing). There are no guarantees that Prior will be fully recovered from his injury and signing Prior will cost the Yanks another spot on their 40-man roster. I think they'd be better off allowing him to sign elsewhere, preferably with an NL team and monitor him throughout the year. If he regains his form and seems to be worth the investment, he will be available next year via free agency.

Another key reason is the Big Three, the Trinity -- the Future. This year's rotation projects to include Wang, Pettitte, Moose (ehh), Joba, Hughes, and Misterrrrrrrrrrr Kennedy. For the '09 season, Wang, Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy will all be under contract and Pettitte is always a possibility to return. If the Yanks do sign Prior, and he pitches like most guys do when they come back from injury (mediocre for the first year) he will clearly take innings from the Big Three and impede their development. While no Yankee fan likes to hear it, this year is a 'rebuilding' year when it comes to the pitching staff. The young guys in the rotation and the pen need the opportunity to get their feet wet in order to see if the Yanks can build their 'new dynasty' from within.

Prior is a one year deal. If he's dominant, he will try to go after the most money possible (he did the same thing when drafted). If he stinks, well, then we're looking at the latest of Yankees pitching failures -- who will eat up too many valuable innings and be kicked to the curb afterwards.

The best option is to let Prior sign elsewhere and scout him. He will be an available free agent at the end of the year along with (possibly) Santana and Sabathia. The Yanks will have a year to see how Joba, Phil, and Ian do as starters. It is then conceivable that they can sign two of the three: Prior, Santana, or CC and move Joba to the pen to be Mo's successor.